Some Thoughts on AI by Gavin Baker

Will all of the fud out there regarding the "popping of the AI bubble" and ORCL CDS spreads blowing out, I thought the below article was a concise, informed position from Gavin basically saying: "trust the process"

Link: https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1991248768654803337

A few somewhat obvious takeaways:

1. If foundation models prove not to be a commodity, this clearly shifts balance of power towards US. Seems reasonable to assume internal capabilities at top labs surpass what is publicly available

2. Performance increases vs. open source likely to increase as Blackwell comes online. Chip bans will start to bite China OSS harder next year.

3. Pretty crazy the closed foundation model race is a four horse oligopoly and the only "pure play"(ish) publicly traded exposure available is $GOOG. Personally though, that is the name I would most like to own

4. Cost per token is the key output and $Goog is again the leader here given their substantial infra investments

Google has obviously run quite a bit recently, but seems like a structural shift is clearly underway in terms of market share. Will likely have some interim pull backs but seems like the most obvious long-term hold of the Mag 7.

The $GOOG is an "AI loser" crowd looking increasingly foolish.